| Sometimes its not easy for me to explain -- in a basic, straightforward way -- why I want fossil fuel use outlawed. I have a hard time putting into words why I am so disgusted, sad & shocked by our collective failure to stop using coal, oil and gas. I have trouble distilling my huge emotions, boatloads of factual reasons, plus my physical desire to barf into a single rational, easily-understood sentence. Finally I can say simply -- at the heart of it -- I want greenhouse gas pollution stopped because its killing people. And because it has the potential to kill a lot more people if we don't stop it. You wanna hear the facts to back that up? Or did I lose you already cause that's too scary to think about? | |
| Climate change can kill people directly in all kinds of different ways (floods, storm surge, heat waves). Climate change can also kill indirectly -- for example, through a chain reaction of changing precipitation & temperature causing crop failure, which increases malnutrition, which contributes to 45% of child deaths (for kids under 5). Tons of other ways global warming can take us down if you want to read more. Lots of people seem to want a grand tally: "How many people will climate change kill, altogether, if we keep on using coal, oil & gas like we have been?" I wish I could find the authoritative answer to that question. I think most of us don't know how big the global warming problem is. Can't imagine a more meaningful metric than # of dead people for understanding the impact of our actions.  Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Physics professor & prominent European climate scientist (click to read his wikipedia entry & decide if he might know something) Hans Joachim Schellnhuber estimated that about 1 billion people could survive if global average temperature increases by 5 degrees celsius (about 9 degrees farenheit). As we are currently going, we are on track to possibly hit this even within 65 years. Right now there are about 7 billion people on earth. So, 7 minus what = 1? Looks like at least 6 billion dead is Hans best guess if population doesn't grow between now & whenever. Do you have the immediate impulse to believe this could never be true? Do you want to tell yourself he's a pessimist? Discounting human ingenuity? What if he's overestimated by a lot and its only 3 billion people that might die? Wouldn't exactly call that good news. A report commissioned by 20 countries & put together by an independent consulting group says about 400,000 people a year are dying because of climate change now -- estimated to increase to about 700,000 per year in 2030. Another report came up with some numbers in the same ballpark -- about 300,000 per year killed in 2009, growing to about 500,000 per year in 2030. Deaths are broken down by cause in both reports & hunger is the biggest killer. The population of Seattle is a little less than 700,000. Ok, so we may be talking about wiping out one Seattle's worth of people a year in the near future. By my so-so math, I am thinking thats about 8 million people in the next 15 years or so. I wonder if some people tell themselves that we don't really need to change unless the number reaches some specific threshold. Is it a million? A billion? Five billion? Is there a magic number that would make everyone say "thats it, too much, now this really is not ok"? Most of what I have been able to learn about global warming-related deaths comes more in drips and drabs than in the form of that "magic" number. If you are having a hard time imaging how all these people could die, I can tell you some of what I've found out. I'll start with hunger because it looks like that is the big one. A lot of the people in the world are farmers who depend on the historical patterns of rain & temperature to grow crops & feed their families. Most don't have irrigation, or money to buy equipment & pay for water.
"Initial research based on the three models suggests that human influence is to blame for between 24% and 99% of the increased risk of the dry conditions seen during the long rains season of 2011. Further research is seeking to narrow down on this figure." I know its hard for any of us in the US to imagine how this would feel & what actually happens when nearly everyone in your community runs out of food and water. Here's a small window into what that looks like:  NYT: Driven By Drought Heat waves are another climate change killer that most of us actually have experienced ourselves. Most of us have noticed hotter summers during our lifetimes. A couple snippets from my most credible sources:
So more and longer heat waves clearly mean more dead people. If you're reading this, a heat wave clearly hasn't killed you yet. You might have found parts of some summers pretty miserable, but most likely you have air conditioning, plenty of drinking water & access to a hospital if things got really bad. The worst thing a heat wave might mean to you so far is that you prefer not to spend as much time outside. Few more stats to think about:
 Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam "Informal Settlement" Not to hard to see that no running water, no electricity for AC -- or even solid walls to hold in the cool air if you did have it -- means trouble in a heat wave. IPCC scientists write it like this: "An emerging public health concern in Asia is increasing mortality and morbidity due to heat waves." Again, I just say I see dead people. Let's recap. At the low end, I've got at least 70,000 already dead just from the European heat wave in 2003 & at least 50,000 from the East Africa drought. Headed up to somewhere between 8 million and 6 billion over the next 15 to 55 years. I don't honestly have the answer to the "how many" question, but for myself I don't need that answer to care. I know for sure the number of people killed by climate change is more than zero. I know the number of dead people gets bigger as the amount of global warming gets bigger. I know we could cut back our fossil fuel use enormously while still living a good life ourselves. I don't want to be part of a world where we collectively ignore the fact that we are killing innocent people -- or callously accept it. Most of us have learned to live with the reality that many, many people are suffering in the world around us. If you are like me, maybe one of the ways you've consoled yourself is by telling yourself that at least you aren't the cause of that suffering. But, this time its different. We can't honestly tell ourselves we aren't -- in part -- the cause of all the global warming-induced deaths, past & future. I don't want to think of myself as a murderer but I have to face that I basically am -- I've got big time blood on my hands. How can I not share the blame for the lives lost as long as I use fossil fuels & unless I do all I can to speak out against it? Makes me really think before I get into a car or turn on the lights...is it worth it? |
